By PETER WORTHINGTON -- Toronto Sun

Ever since the U.S./NATO "victory" in the Kosovo air war that put ethnic Albanians in power (i.e., the Kosovo Liberation Army), neighbouring Macedonia has been targeted for militant Albanian subversion.

Despite months of probes, killings and attacks inside Macedonia's border, followed by temporary ceasefires and negotiations brokered by NATO and the European Union (EU), civil war seems inescapable.

Few expect the latest ceasefire to last.

Simmering volcanoes inevitably erupt.

At stake is Macedonia's sovereignty and integrity. Maybe even its existence. Certainly its stability.

Macedonia is a "new" (1991) but very old (Alexander the Great) country the size of Vermont (or half the size of Nova Scotia), with a population of two million, maybe 25% of which is ethnic Albanian. Until Kosovo, ethnic relations were considered relatively harmonious.

No longer. Albanian militants comprising the National Liberation Army (using the Albanian initials UCK, the same as in Kosovo, but different) claim to be fighting for human rights and equal treatment but are suspected of wanting part of Macedonia for Kosovo, or even a Greater Albania - as Albanian maps have long depicted.

Leaders of the NLA and many of its fighters are the very ones who agitated, provoked and goaded Serbs into retaliations that led to the U.S./NATO air war against Slobodan Milosevic's regime.

Similar militancy is underway in Macedonia.

An older "liberation" (terrorist?) movement with the initials UCPMB is also active and wants Albanian areas united with Kosovo, which the NLA publicly rejects in favour of more rights for Albanians, which the government feels aren't needed.

The majority of Macedonia's ethnic Albanians haven't overtly sided with several thousand NLA fighters, but as time goes on, sympathy grows and more will likely join the cause.

Ostensibly, what Macedonian Albanians want is recognition as equals under Macedonia's constitution, Albanian to be an official language (they got that last week) and a state-funded Albanian university established.

The government - probably correctly - sees concessions as a first step toward breaking up or surrendering the country. They hardly seem a reason for civil war, yet that's what looms.

Macedonia views insurgents as rebels and terrorists who, if not crushed, will blossom into a legitimate dissident movement. That is, all-out civil war.

Predictably, western countries favour negotiations, arbitration, mediation - anything but overt military response.

Military solutions

Contrary to conventional opinion, military solutions are often more permanent than negotiated ones. (The solution to Hitler was a military one, as was a unified Vietnam for Hanoi).

The Macedonian army is small potatoes, and not geared for guerrilla war, as the NLA is. The single greatest advantage the 17,000-member Macedonian army has over the rebels is a few combat helicopters, some flown by Ukrainians.

Macedonia's President Boris Trajkovski and military leaders have been urged not to use helicopters against the NLA, else they risk NATO intervening on humanitarian grounds to protect Albanian civilians.

Macedonia is fearful NATO might do to it what NATO did to Serbia, since NATO and the U.S. supported the KLA in Kosovo, even aiding and training them.

While NATO (and when I say NATO I also mean the U.S., Britain and, by implication, Canada) doesn't consider itself an ally of ethnic Albanians, it certainly has been, and still is, judging from the way it opposes Macedonia from protecting itself.

When the NLA attacks villages and makes territorial gains, NATO and EU diplomats negotiate a ceasefire - with the NLA keeping part of what it gains, and Macedonia urged to show restraint.

My advice to the Macedonian leadership would be to do whatever it considers necessary to preserve their country's sovereignty. Emulate Israel, which ignores all outside advice that conflicts with what Israel feels is in its interests. Israel may often be wrong, but its decisions are motivated by survival and its own interests, not to please foreign concerns.

In the Balkans, the unappeasable cannot be appeased. In a Macedonian context, that means Albanian rebels.

If it takes attack helicopters to establish authority over its border territory, or to defeat insurgents, Macedonia shouldn't hesitate. The West always prefers restraint to military action - unless western (U.S.) interests are threatened.

That NATO might shoot down Macedonian helicopters if they attacked Albanian rebels verges on the inconceivable. Imagine the headlines: "NATO at war with Macedonia." No way.

Kosovo was an unnecessary war by NATO and the U.S. that destabilized the Balkans and destroyed the myth of NATO as a defensive alliance and not an offensive instrument.

Historically, Macedonia has strong nationalistic pride, but is no threat to neighbours and has no reputation of mistreating minorities. Even if some Albanians feel alienated, Macedonia is not Serbia. It was generous taking in refugees during the Kosovo war and co-operated with NATO and humanitarian agencies.

Macedonia deserves better than to be subverted by militants for some greater Albanian goal. But mostly it should learn from the past and tell NATO to butt out, and do whatever is necessary to protect itself. The Macedonians might find they have more allies than they think.

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